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“If you ain’t first, you’re last.” — Ricky Bobby

The words of the famous prophet/racecar driver, Ricky Bobby, have perhaps never more perfectly summed up anything the way they do the world of golf betting. After a top-5 by William McGirt and a runner-up by Luke Donald, I should be sipping Dom and eating steak. Instead, I’m drinking a Fresca and eating Ramen.

That being said, I’m not one for wallowing in self-pity just because some flash in the pan trick shot artist stole the show — and a fat paycheck — from Luke Donald and yours truly. I’m going to get back on my noble steed and kick some ass — and if you heed my advice, so can you.

It’s like the great band Chumbawumba once said — “I get knocked down, but I get up again. You’re never going to keep me down.”

Screw you, adversity! It’s time to pound my chest and pick a winner — so get your No. 2’s ready:

Valero Texas Open
TPC San Antonio-AT&T Oaks – San Antonio, Texas
April 20 – 23, 2017

ODDS to Win:
Matt Kuchar 15/1
Brooks Koepka 20/1
Charley Hoffman 20/1
Ryan Moore 20/1
Jimmy Walker 25/1
Branden Grace 25/1
Adam Hadwin 25/1
Brendan Steele 25/1
Patrick Reed 30/1
Billy Horschel 30/1
Kevin Chappell 25/1
Luke Donald 30/1
Tony Finau 40/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Ryan Palmer 30/1
Kevin Na WD
Ollie Schniederjans 30/1
Keegan Bradley 50/1
Byeong Hun An 50/1
Luke List 40/1
J.J. Spaun 50/1
Ian Poulter 60/1
Graeme McDowell 60/1
Jhonattan Vegas 60/1
Daniel Summerhays 60/1
Soren Kjeldsen 60/1
Anirban Lahiri 60/1
Chris Kirk 60/1
Martin Laird 60/1
Sung Kang 60/1
Bryson DeChambeau 80/1
Jamie Lovemark 80/1
Harold Varner III 80/1
Danny Lee 80/1
Bud Cauley 80/1
Jason Kokrak 80/1
Nick Watney 80/1
Scott Piercy 80/1
Kevin Streelman 100/1
J.T. Poston 100/1
Cameron Smith 100/1
Aaron Baddeley 100/1
Stewart Cink 100/1
David Hearn 125/1
Curtis Luck 150/1
Matt Jones 150/1
Andrew Johnston 150/1
Ryo Ishikawa 250/1
Hunter Mahan 300/1
Field (all others) 8/5

Mortal Locks

Matt Kuchar — I know, I know. I’ve told you numerous times not to pick the favorite and here I am — picking the favorite. Well, I’ve got news for you. I’m about as consistent as the story John’s and Hookers have for cops. I’m taking Kuchar because it’s a no-brainer. At 15/1 this week, you’d be downright foolish to pass him by. Should he do what Vegas expects him to, even a $10 bet will land you $150. It’s just good math.

Kevin Chappell — A guy who’s math is even better this week is Kevin Chappell. While most of you are probably scrambling to PGATour.com to check out his profile, Chappell should be a household name to fantasy players and serious fans. If he isn’t, then you’re not. Chappell took last week off after posting a T-7 at the Masters. That may have surprised some, but not me. Look for the UCLA product to have a (potentially) life-changing week in Texas. At 25/1, you can’t go wrong.

Tony Finau — Want to talk about a “Finau-menal” bet this week? Okay, sorry — that was a horrific pun. In all seriousness, my guy this week is Tony Finau. I’ll be doing some hedging for sure, but Finau is where the bulk of my funds are going. He’s long off the tee and has been steady all year. It’s high time for him to break through to bigger things — and that could very well happen this week. At 40/1, you’ll be glad to hear me say, “I told you so.”

Bang for Your Buck

Kevin Streelman — The 2017 PGA Tour season for Streelman has been a bit of a roller coaster. He’s solid one week then missing the cut or finishing 70th the next. Last time he teed it up, he did the later — meaning it’s time for a solid week from the former Blue Devil standout. He’s won twice on Tour so he knows how to get it done, and while I’m skeptical, the 100/1 action he’s getting is enough to convince me to toss a couple shekels his way this week.

Curtis Luck — It doesn’t happen often, but every once in a while a stud amateur will turn pro and promptly turn heads on Tour. This year, that guy could be Curtis Luck. The Aussie finished T-46 at the Masters and promptly turned professional. At 150/1 this week, I’m going to take a flyer. I love the kids game and I love his chances to make some noise. He’s a long shot, so don’t think I’m predicting victory — I’m just saying he has the game to make it happen and at the cost of a couple bucks, I’d rather be on the right side of history.

There you have it, friends and degenerate wagerers. If you think you can do better, then go and do it. Always remember, this is purely a public service. You’re all adults. If you want to spread your wings and leave the nest, that’s fine — but the only worms you’re going to find are the once that couldn’t make it across the worm Sahara that is the Publix parking lot. Cheers!

 

-Golfstradamus

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